Future Prospects.
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3.—The Probable Demand or Public-service Motors,
TIIE AFTER-WAR demand for public-service 'vehicles will, like the demand for commercial machines, be assisted by the fact that operating concerns were, during the early stages of the war, compelled to hand over the pick of their vehicles, and since that time have had very limited opportunities of replacing them. The smaller omnibus proprietors, the nature of whose business merges into that of the char-A-bancs owner, has, in many cases, been left with no cars at all, and has had to use his premises merely for the housing of derelict bus bodies. Others have been left the use of their older machines, supple Merited, in certain cases, by anything that they were able to get. VieWing the situation, broadly, it is obvious that, when the demands of the British Government and of the Allies had first to be satisfied, the machines remaining available for sale to individuals were not in all cases of the highest quality. Thus, when the war is over, it will be necessary to make up, first, the numerical deficit in the fleets, and then to replace second-rate machines and machines that. have already almost passed their period of economical . utility. • . The demand for public-service motors' is subject to at least one rather peculiar influence, the probable effects of which are extremely difficult to estimate. In many quarters, the motor emnibus is either in direct competition with the tram or represents the . alternative or supplementary form of transport for .passengers. With the examples 'of London, Paris and other towns before them, it may be anticipated that local authorities generally are on the point of overcoming their old prejudices against the motorbus, based, as they were, almost entirely. on the fact that public money on a large scale had been spent upon trams and tramway systems, and local Government bodies were reluctant to admit that the public property in this form had depreciated in value very seriously.
The Bus to Supplement the Tram. The way out of this dilemma evidently lay in the direction of adopting buses not in place of, but in addition to, trams, and thus avoiding new expenditures which in a few years might be proved quite unjustifiable, while not definitely admitting that former expenditures on tram systems had been injudicious. As a supplement of the tram the motor omnibus has very great advantages, which can. be freely admitted even by those whose policy it is to reikard the bus as inferior to the tram. on general principles. Even where political consistency entails an apparent adherence to this view, it may be safely conceded that motorbuses can he advantageously used on light or , experimental routes, since, if a trial service proves unpopular or :too unprofitable, the vehicles can at short notice be'taken off and applied elsewhere. Also, special services can be run on Sundays or Weekly halfholidays, or on occasions when there is an exceptional volume of traffic along a .ee-rtain-route. This class of: employment of the motor omnibus does not, however,:represent in the aggregate a very substantial market. The big psospect. of development lies, in the ultimate recognition of the factthat theinherent advantages of flexible traffic are sogreat B44 • as more than to counterbalance any direct economy resulting from the large carrying-capacity of the tramcar. The peculiar situation to which reference was made above is cnosed by the fact that everyone is now aware that the motor omnibus is a very valuable military asset whilst the tramcar is e'ssentially only of local utility. If all of us were capable of taking the broad view this would be a strong argument in favour of the bus, inasmuch as we should realize that in providing local facilities by means of buses, we were also performing the important duty of providing a valuable national asset. Unfortunately, however, there are many people who take a narrower outlook The Local Idea Predominating. • One can quite imagine a certain type of town councillor arguing against the introduction of buses on the grounds that, in the event of national emergency, the local passenger-carrying facilities would remain untouched. If the argument is put crudely, it simply amounts to this—" Let us avoid bringing into exist. ence something useful to the nation, because when the nation wants it we shall not have the personal use of it ourselves." This reasoning would, of course, be delicately and carefully clothed in verbiage, and if tactfully put forward---as it no 'doubt would be, at least as a last resort, by enthusiastic supporters of the tram—one can quite imagine it appealing to a. sufficient number of members of a local council to Make what would have been a majority into a Minority. It is thus conceivable that one of the great. 'reasons why buses should be used may actually pave the effect in practice in restricting their use. Another rather difficult aspect of the situation:results from the powers vested in the local authorities, who can refuse licences, or attach to the granting of licences almost impossible :conditions. Authorities can, moreover, restrict the use of omnibuses on new: routes and levy taxes for the benefit of local roads on the proprietors of public-service vehicles. Whether a local authority is an enthusiastic advocate of the. tramway system to the exclusion of all other forms of passenger traffic, or whether it is itself the proprietor of motor omnibus services, there is always a danger of • its power as licensing authority being used to the detriment of private enterprise in the sphere of the motor omnibus.
The Application of Taxes.
The whole position with regard to taxation is very unsatisfactory. The motorbus contributes to the im provement of roads through the medium of the petrol tax, and its proprietor also contributes to the local exchequer in his capacity as a ratepayer. If we look at the question of roads and traffic from a national . standpoint and agree that the contributions in respect of all motor vehicles should go to a national fund, therfee to be disbursed to meet the', needs of deserving cases, we cannot at the same .time argue that direct payments ought to be made to the authorities responsible for the local roads which the vehicles. actually use. ' Either :one payment or the. other may be reasonable, but to apply both is quite unreason' able. Reference has already been made to the danger that, in considering questions of taxation, motoring. interests may not hang together properly. The private motorist is none too fond of the motor omnibus, disliking it particularly when he meets or overtakes it on country roads. If ear owners as a whole were to lend their support to those who would like to tax motorbuses heavily, the situation would be complicated and rendered more dangerous than it need be. Splits of this kind are to be avoided at all cost, and this point cannot be too strongly emphas. ized, since very much depends upon it.
Development of Char-a-bancs Business.
There are thus certain retarding influences bearing upon the extended use of Motor-omnibuses which_ are not duplicated in the case of the goods--carrying vehicle, and it is, therefore, probable that development'in the sphere of public service will not, during the years immediately, following the war, be so considerable or rapid. At the same time, a very big demand may be anticipated for the tYpes of vehicle given under the general heading of ."Chars-h-batics." Since these need not ply for hire, they are sub*t to less rigid restrictions and objectionable interferenee. During the year or so immediately preceding the war, it was becoming rapidly recognized that the motor char-a-banes or coach might be 'a very lucrative property. Holiday and health resorts realized that the existence of motor coach services centred upon them represented a positive asset, because it afforded an additional attraction to visitors and made it possible to base the appeal of the holiday centre partly upon the natural beauties or the historical 'interests of places situated at some little 'distance from it. In the .early stages, the motor char-a-banes merely took the place of the horsed variety, offering simply the advantage of more rapi(l and more extensive tours. Gradually it was realized. that this type of vehicle opened up new possibilities of its own. There was no need to adhere merely to day, half-day, or short trips. Longer runs, lasting perhaps three days or a week, were successfully organized. The cars took parties to important race meetings at places a hundred miles or more distant. It was becoming clear that the idea of touring by motor coach would soon be generally accepted, and that plenty of people would soon take their holidays in this way: The possibilities of extending such tours so as to cover parts of adjacent European Countries were by. no means remote.
At the present moment, the motor char-a-hancs, denied supplies. of petrel,. has been to all intents and purposes 'driven off the road, but when the war is over the threads will be taken up at the point at which they have been broken'. The only adverse influence is due -to the fact that many representatives of the class of businesses which lean naturally towards the ownership of motor 'coaches-have been very hard hit
by the war. Consequently, money may not be generally available for the immediate purchase of vehicles.
At time same time, the public demand will be so strong as to encourage the promptest possible development in the supply, and we may safely reckon that the motor char-a-baneS market will be a large and rapidly growing one.
As regards naotorcabs, the future is less promising and very difficult to assess. The early develop ment in this direction was abnormally rapid, because it was due not only to the inherent superiority of the motor over the horsed cab, but also to the general adoption of the taximeter in connection with the former. The horsed cab driver in this country doggedly opposed the use of the taximeter, and the public, tired of his extortions, deserted him in mass at the first opportunity. Thus, the niotareab came into prominence a..1rnost, too quickly for healthy development. Its introduction under the ownership of large operating companies involved a new principle in the trade effected. 'The old cab driver was accustomed to hire his cab at so much a day or week, and make what he could of it. The taxi driver, on the other hand, was placed in the position of an employee receiving wages and commission.
The whole character of the life 'seems to favour more individual methods of treatment. The driver has almost infinite opportunities of defrauding his employer, especially if, as often happens, the public proves quite willing to assist him. The type of man who will take up cab driving as a permanent livelihood appears to be also the type that regards the capitalist and employer as natural enemies. The rapid growth of the whole movement also led proprietErs to offer in their vehicles higher power and a higher degree of luxury than was compatible with the fares legally permissible_ Thus, a combination of circuMstances arose which made it particularly difficult for cab-operating companies to show satisfactory balance sheets. It is 'doubtful whether matters will in this respectbe materially bettered when the war is over. Altogether, the future of the rnotorcab seems to be dependent mainly on the owner-driver and the small proprietor running perhaps three or four cabs and a motor garage or jobbing. business. With a plethora of drivers who have gained experience dur • ing the war, it is probable that owner-driven cabs will be placed on the streets in adequate numbers to fill the whole public requirement, but even so one cannot anticipate very huge markets. Moreover, the teems of purchaSe, often involving-payment by instalments, are not guch as to appeal very strongly to the majority of motor manufacturers.
The Trade in Goods-earriers,
Taken . onthe whole then, the enlarged markets that are necessary in the future will have to be provided rather by the demand for goods-carrying 'vehicles than by the extended use of public-service motors. The latter will contribute something, but not its share, to the total demand on which the future welfare of the world's manufacturing industry is dependent.
There are, of course, other potential and considerable markets for motor machinery. Notably, we have to. take into account the immense requirements of agriculture. This will involve the manufacture of large quantities of tractors and motor ploughs, also the use of specialized machines, such as motor rollers and mowers, and the employment of vans, lorries and convertible vehicles for the carriage of produce for station use and for general estate work.
Thus, the whole review of the position, so far as we can see it to-day, leads to the conclusion that the demand will not fall far short of the greatly enlarged supply. We will next consider to what extent it may be anticipated that military requirements, not directly connected with the present war, but of a more permanent character, will affect 'the use and, design of motor vehicles and the distribution of the business among home and foreign manufacturers.
VECTIS,