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There's a light at the end of the tunnel
Page 68
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It's been a tough 18 months for used truck dealers — and with the benefit of hindsight many insiders feel digital tachographs are to blame, says used vehicle editor Kevin Swallow.
Ask around the used trade for the current state of play and you'll get the same answer from just about everyone: not enough desirable stock and prices going through the roof.
Over the past 18 months used dealers, independent and franchised alike, have been fighting tooth and nail for the best vehicles. It seems no-one was properly prepared for digitachs and smart cards, even though this issue had been in the pipeline for the best part of six years.
This issue was clouded by price hikes for Euro-4/5 and the SCR vs EGA debate; understandably hauliers chose to stick rather than twist and hold onto tried and trusted vehicles. For retail-based dealerships it led to a tough trading environment, with some looking to alternative markets or the after-market to make up the shortfall. Others kept looking... and praying that late-year/ analogue-tacho stock would appear from somewhere.
Doom and gloom increased as lead times on new vehicles extended; manufacturers were keen to meet the rising demand in eastern Europe for uniform lefthand-drive products, rather than to the UK with its right-hookers.
But finally things are beginning to change. The number of digitach cards issued by the DVLA has reached tipping point, allowing operators and rental companies to order new stock without fear of having no-one to drive thern.They might still be aggrieved at lead times but it takes a fortnight to get your driver equipped with a digitach card so it would be a poorly organised transport manager who couldn't get those two factors to run harmoniously.
As extended 6/12-month leases start to expire, late-year Euro-3 stock should start to come onto the market and by summer prices should even out. Over the next 12 months the market for new and used vehicles is set to be as lopsided as the previous 18 months, but this time the imbalance will create a buyers' market.
Lead times currently stretch into summer 2008, so if you order today, you should see a fair return on your old truck when you trade it in. But if you hang on too long you'll miss the boat.And operators who replaced their fleets with the last of the Euro-3 analogue wagons on three-tofive-year replacement schemes could get their finger burned.
Three-year deals that expire in 2009 for Euro-3 analogue trucks could be close to worthless. By then Euro-5 will be the only choice for new trucks, and with more cities adopting low-emission-zone road charging schemes, Euro-3 will be left out in the cold. •