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What 1914 Has in Store.

1st January 1914
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Page 4, 1st January 1914 — What 1914 Has in Store.
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Which of the following most accurately describes the problem?

The Editor finds that his personal correspondence with readers has enormously increased during the past year. He desires to intimate that questions in respect of detail costs or other matters connected with the 'working of all types of commercial 732rmtcns are still answered by direct letter free of charge.

Acsidstats.

The emergence of convincing data with respect to street fatalities may be anticipated during the year 1914. Sustained efforts were made, in the early part of last year, principally by pro-tramcar politicians, to create a feeling of panic, and to work up a scare in the public mind, with regard to fatalities and accidents ascribed to motorbuses. We refer to proceedings which preceded the appointment, and accompanied the sittings, of the Select Committee of the House of Commons on London motor traffic.

We look forward, without any doubts or fears, to the acceptance by the public at large of the fact, that the unfortunate high totals of fatalities and accidents in the Metropolitan police area., during the 15 months ended the 31st March last, were nothing more than a passing and regrettable phase of motor-vehicle development. Statistics of all large haulage undertakings, inclusive of electric-tramcar systems, show that the accident curve is almost invariably high during the first few years of operation, during which unavoidable period a body of trained drivers is being secured. Apprehensions and misgivings regularly occur, only to be forgotten. When the statistics for 1914 are ready, they will show the droop in the motorbus curve which is so much to be desired Irons all points of view. Of that, we are convinced.

Costs.

The all-important subject of costs will certainly attract no less attention during 1914 than it has of late years. It was impossible, a "few years ago, before many uncertainties of manufacture and running practice were eliminated, to get costs down to ascertained bases. Whereas, until a few years ago, owners had to accept. the risk of enormous variations from month to month and year to year, those whose cost records are properly kept now frequently insist upon checking variations to the third and fourth place of decimals of a. penny per mile run. This is certainly the case with owners of large fleets, such as the London General Omnibus Co., Ltd., and many of the large stores. The smaller owner should not shut his eyes to possible economies and improvements. The fact that he has a margin in hand, compared with other costs, does not justify waste. We anticipate that the requests for our sheet of average working costs will be maintained, and we have had a further edition of these printed, in order that we may meet the demand from all parts of the Empire. This sheet of normal working costs presents in concise form the averages of many hundreds of averages, and we will continue to give it away, free of charge, to any applicant who writes for a copy. We have confidence that the year 1914 will bring about atilt further economies for careful owners, and that the principle of calling for occasional inspection by a competent supervising engineer will also be extended. Such an engineerirm inspection, of course, is a matter which cannot be arranged' except at. the cost of a fee. We shall, ourselves, continuo to offer, free of charge, our Editorial scrutiny of detail costs, with a view to the guidance of owners, although we cannot hope in every case to save them the cost of expert inspection to the owner.

The portents for the year are uniformly good. Fuel prices to commercial owners will undoubtedly be kept down, whilst the prices for tires and consumable stores promise to stay where they are, or to fall.

Electric Vehicles.

The electric vehicle will renew its struggle for existence, in the United Kingdom, during the year upon which we are now entering. The establishment of an Electric Vehicle Committee by the interests concerned is one means to this end, and the number of accumulator-driven vehicles at the Parade on Whit-Monday next will provide the first definite indication of the growth of use of such vehicles in London. The extent of progress during the year will clearly depend upon the ostabliehment of the case for cheaper maintenance of the battery-propelled vehicle, as compared with accepted and proved running costs for vehicles of the petrol and steam types. These data are not yet satisfactorily proved in England, and iT.S.A. records will not be sufficient to win general acceptance for the electric vehicle on this side of the Atlantic. 138

Insurance.

The year will be a noteworthy one in respect of developments in connection with commercial-motor risks in the insurance world. Standard policies will be adopted by the Commercial Motor Users Association and its branches, and the well-settled clauses of these standard policies will materially help to simplify procedure for owners, whilet at the same time engendering legitimate competition amongst sound offices. The Royal Automobile Club has found the standardpolicy scheme to work well, and to eliminate the risk of preference for any one office. It is likely to transpire so far as we can see, that this satisfactory result will be achieved on the commercial-motor side.

Proposals in connection with commercial-motor insurance, for example, 'men so-called mutual lines, are likely to be advanced, but we have no reason to believe that these will disclose any attractions or merits that cannot be offered by existing underwriters.

Legislation.

Plottings and counter-platings promise to be the limit attained, and no positive legislation, either favourable or unfavourable, is likely to be put upon the statute book. When matters do reach 'the point at which action of some kind must be taken, we anticipate that a Departmental Committee of the Local Government Board, or possibly a joint committee of that Department and the Board of Trade, will in,the first place beappointed to take evidence before any material nanges in the law are adopted.

The year 1914 is not likely to see proposals for new highway or motor legislation brought to a head. It will, hereanent, prove to add further records to those which are available for the guidance of our legislators later OM Every year that passes strengthens the case and cause of commercial motoring ; the year 1914 will add a record total of new adherents. It is not direct legislation that will have this effect, but the result will be in part due to the indirect effects of " Railway Conciliation" and other industrial legislation.

The Motorbus World.

Affairs in the London motorbus world are well settled, and under excellent control. Motorbus interests in the Metropolis are well able to hold their own in competition with traamar interests, and the public is becoming increasingly

on the side of the former. There will undoubtedly be developments in the tramcar v. motorbus controversy, as between the.L.C.C. and the L.G.O.C., but we seriongly question if the temporary improvement of the L.C.C. revenue, which has lately been shown, will be maintained during the year 1914. Trailer-tramcars may help.

Turning to the Provinces, it is already evident that the year will witness unnecessary competition for local .favour, and in this connection we commend to the rival parties concerned the example of London motorbus proprietors and London carriers in respect of amalgamation, combination or an adjustment Of spheres.

Motorcab Troubles.

The Metropolis cannot for very much longer fail to witness difficulties and troubles amongst driver-owners of motorcabs. These trials will be to some extent similar to those by which certain companies have been confronted : fuel costs, maintenance charges and accident claims.

The London cab world, early in the :v.-ear 1913, was riven by a disastrous strike, and the proprietary companies were deprived of their last chance of making a financial success of their undertakings by reason of the separate action of one of the companies. All the owners were obliged to follow that lead, under which the men obtained concessions which should not have been granted. One of the results is Seen in the conversion of metorcabs into motorvans, and casual observers might be led to think that all was well with the remaining owners, now reduced in numbers, and above all with the driver-owners.

We believe that many driver-owners will be unable to pay their way during 1914. London is now so well provided with motorbus and tube "facilities, that thousands of cabhirers, whose customs were rudely disturbed during the strike of January-March last, have never returned to their previous methods of getting about, and have taught large numbers of their friends how to save money by having recourse LO the wonderful network of travelling facilitiee which is provided by " The Underground " and its associated undertakings. It is the. cost of isolated maintenance, coupled with the higher scale of living on the part of the men themselves, Oett will, so far as we are able to see, lead to a recrudescence of trouble in the London cab world. Gratuities, again, are on a decseasing scale.

So far as the Provinces are concerned, we do not find prospects to be good for owners who ply for hire at municipal rates : private-hire work is more promising. The year may see successful efforts made and steps taken to secure for owners all-round incrsasee of fare schedules.

Quays and Warehouses.

The year 1014 viIl. we hope, be the one to which owners will beils back as the first to give marked evidence of adequate care and provision in advance for their legitimate requirements by dock conipaeies aed warehouse prep ictors. The grounds for a measure of preference over slow, horse-drawn units are sound and amply demonstrated : their recognition is granted already, but the problem is not yet tackled. We have been glad to find a few new warehouses iii Manchester with extra loading bays. At many of these warehouses, there should he four or more for each. one that exists to-day. It will be a pleasure to us, during the year, to record the instances in which the principle of superior opportunity for the modern, self-propelled unit is put ince practical shape. The changes involved are simple, and they must come. The beginnings, small though they may be, viii fall to the credit of 1914.

Railway Unrest.

The working and detail application of the Railway Conciliation Act of 1911 will come under review very generally during the ensuing year. Notices of termination of existing arrangements have been given widely, and the results of the fresh negotiations necessarily lie in the lap of the future. We have no reason to sound a note of alarm, to the extent of expressing the belief that a struggle of any prolonged character will occur, but it is undoubtedly feared, on both sides of the House of Commons and as much by directors of railway compaides as by the men and their officials, that some temporary dislocation may be unavoidable. Cessation or curtailment of railway service needs to be anticipated. The experiences of the past few years, on the part of owners of commercial motors, in respect of their ability to cope for the time being with urgent transport of vital importance to themselves and even to the nation at large, may be repeated in July or August next. The happenings and uncertainties of the summer of 1911, when a. general railway strike was transiently an accomplished fact, must linger in the minds of thousands of readers of this journal. if they have not yet safeguarded themselves to the extent of reasonable provision to enable them to deal with the transport if the commodities or materials which are to them absolute necessities, they may care to act upon this remintier.

Roadside Catering.

The issue of the first edition of the " Night Shelter Handbook '' of the Commercial Motor Users Association will almost immediately mark the ineeption of a big scheme of roadside catering. This development will ceucern not only the victualling of driver and vehicle, but will mark the opening of a plan of roadside connnunication and control in the interests of owners. Supply depots will be organized on uniform lines, so far as practical considerations permit such refinements to be made of a practicable order, and users who are members of the only organization in the country which gives emclusiye and special attention to their requirements will look back to the year 1914 as one of real benefit from this standpoint. The extension of long-distance haulage thee brings lo a head, at the opening of the year, demands which have been expressing themselves in subdued fashion for at least two years.

The importance of keeping touch with drivers is a topic for the discussion of which we have afforded space in otif columns on several occasions. We forecast the early systematizing of numerous proposals which are at the moment only in embryonic form. One of -these is the discovery of some plan to help owners in regard Lo the provision of seturn loads in particular eases, and another is the gradual evolution of what may be termed "clearing depots." Those branches of the subject are, however, for treatment necessarily more remote, and they cannot possibly be brought to a state of anything like general working for

some years to come. The point to be noted ie this : 1914 will for all time be regarded as the year of initiation. Time alone can permit an approach to suitable modifications of railway methods. The first move is welcome.

Shows.

There are to be several important shows during the year. We are not concerned to refer to the incidental and local support which particular manufacturers of commercial motors give to their own choice in the :matter of the smaller or county agricultural shows, or to their selection frorn the long list of trade shows at the Agricultural Hall, Islington, or elsewhere. We are concerned, however, and very deeply so, with the prospects of exteesion for the commercial-motor movement which are held out by certain other shows.

The commercial-motor section of the North of England Show, at Manchester, will claim first attention, at the end of the present month, and it promises to be a record success in every way. The importance of this show is derived in large measure from the fact that it is now the only provincial motor shew at which commercial-motor vehicles are exclusively. shown. This year, it so happens, it is the only commercial-motor show of the year, because there will be no sneh exhibition at Olympia. It is, therefore, invested with a degree of interest which cannot be held tri have existed a year ago, and it presents an opportunity which we strongly urge all our friends in the northern counties to turn to account by paying one or more visits to the City Hall. The ether show of im»ortance will be that of the Royal Agricultural ticciety of Enala»d, at Shrewsbury, from 30th June to the 4th July. In consequence of this visit of 'the BASE. to one of England's most-prosperous western counties, the usual annual show of the Shropshire and West Midland _Agricultural Society will not he held. We have good reasons for anticipating a considerable accession of new exhibitors in the so-called "Implement Section," in which category all types of commercial motors are held to fall by the EASE. The year 1914, in effect, may prove to furnish the first occasion on which petrol-driven exhibits will excel and out-number those on the steam-wagon side at a " Royal."

Wheels and Tires.

The excellent work which has been done by a special corm inittee of the Society of Meter Manufacturer's and Traders, in regard to the standardization of wheels and tires, is likely to be continued, and brought to a satisfactory conclusion. The irritating delays and unnecessary expense, in addition to the loss of earnings, to which many owners of commercial motors are subjected in certain circumstances, cannot be indefinitely retained as factors in up-to-date transport.

We trust that Capt. ,T. S. Sealy Claeke and his colleagues will be able to bring about the happy consummation which is se much desired by all parties concerned, for we are convieced that the tire manufacturers themselves will be no losers in the end when aim agreement is readied. We are scarcely in a position to ray that the opposing influences will all be reconciled by a particular date, hut we do seriously express the view that no greater advantage can be conferred upon those who are responsible for the running and maintenance of commercial meters, than the elimination of the difficulties upon which there is no occasion for us again to dwell. We conclude this forecast by adventuring the opinion that the year 1914 will see that result attained for all future time, in which event the cost of adapting thousands of existing wheels will be money well spent. The opportunity to do so, upon standard lines, is what is wanted.


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