Yes, a world truck 'is inevitable'
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IN NORTH America, Ford and other truck makers have beaten off competition from the Japanese and have carved out a slice of a market segment that earlier had been largely abandoned to imports, Edson P. Williams, vice-president and general manager of Ford's truck operations, told an automotive congress in Detroit.
"The automotive industry leads the way out of recessions", said Mr Williams, "and this recently has proven true once again." Also as usual, light trucks led first, then cars, and "finally heavy trucks", where demand is beginning to tax production capacity.
Mr Williams said the truck trade is really three separate businesses — light conventional; compacts; and heavy trucks. The pick-up, "as an American as apple pie", accounts for almost half the truck market but is practically unknown outside North America he said.
In the compact truck segment in particular, American makers have made major gains at the expense of imports.
"In the first seven months of 1984, more than a million were sold in the US and domestic units held 64.3 per cent of that market" which contrasts with the 18.4 per cent share of the less than 400,000 sold in the same period of 1980. Domestic compact truck sales increased by 879 per cent while imported compact truck sales were up only 23 per cent was his summary.
Ford will enter the compact van market with the introduction of its Aerostar in early 1985, he said.
"The heavy truck market," said Mr Williams, "is different by far from both the others. It has been coming back strong for a year and it's a worldwide market with America by far the largest part. Everyone wants in."
The "heavy truck business in the Pacific Basin is owned by the four Japanese manufacturers Hino, Nissan Diesel, Isuzu, and Mitsubishr, who all have been "in China for 12 years and kicked European truck producers out of their export markets in smaller European countries, North Africa, the Middle East and Latin America".
Their emergence on to the American market is justifiably a worry to the domestic
producers that already face competition from the Europeans, he said. Daimler-Benz moved up a notch from its 12 years of Brazilian production, by commencing assembly of knocked-down units in Norfolk, Virginia; Mercedes-Benz bought Freightliner, Volvo bought White, Renault controls Mack which markets the Renaultmade Mack Mid-Liner, and Fiat's Ivaco operation markets some models, notably stepvans, in the US which is, claimed Williams, "the only truly free market in the world outside of West Germany."
Over-capacity, it was said, fuels the surge on to the North American scene by the Japanese and European makers, but Mr Williams suggested an international shake-down is coming, with those producing less than 150,000 heavy trucks (Class 5 to 9) losing out. "There could be five to seven survivors as major producers in the long term; a major reduction from the 19 in business today."
The Ford truck operations chief said competition will cause cost-cutting in the heavy truck sector ("When costs are reduced 20 to 25 per cent, as they must be, the customer will be the big winner") and, on the total truck scene, "Ford expects to be around and to stay Number One in the battle to survive."
Among those who claimed in 1981 that a future "world truck" is a myth were Volvo White chairman Stan Langenius, lveco BV managing director Giorgio Manina, and Mack Truck president John B. Curcio. But Mr Williams spoke of "commonality — a single product line — 'configurations of the world — width, length, wheel-spacing, etc, that can now be sold in the US' — but components must be worldclass." Clearly, he considers the coming of a "world-truck" within a few years to be inevitable.
Since Mr Williams spoke, Saab-Scania of America of Orange, Connecticut, has announced its intention to set up production lines in the area, where it already produces buses.
Another European maker which is to assemble trucks on the East Coast is MAN. Like Saab-Scania, MAN has an east US bus plant but, unlike SaabScania, it also markets trucks in Canada. It will exhibit an 8x8 logger special at TruckCan: according to reports it will sell at about half the price of its North American produced counterpart.
Whether or not MAN will be able to sell competitively US production into Canada is problematical, but at least it has a toe-hold. Saab-Scania on the other hand does not expect that its plans will have any impact for Canada, at least in the early days, but is keeping Its options — and its ears — open.
Saab-Scania, MAN, Hino, Iveco, Renault, Mitsubishi — all these are big names, but right now they probably represent only the thin edge of the elephant — a term credited to Sir Peter Masefield, then of London Transport, who used it at that World Truck Show.
Rolls-Royce diesels, now a Massey-Ferguson product, can be said to have more than a toe-hold in Canada through the Toronto-based corporate giant.
Leyland has quietly seeded a Leyland Landtrain and a Scammell into the fertile soil of the prairie province of Manitoba whose capital city, Winnipeg, is considered the hub of the country: Leyland is also said to be moving into the US with double-deckers — now operating satisfactorily in San Francisco though maintenance and temperature related problems terminated New York trials — through California based bus-maker Gillig Corporation. All of this within the space of a few weeks.