. . such unpromising material • as the entrails of a chicken'
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BEFORE any important . undertaking the ancient Romans were accustomed to seek .the 'advice of a body of men whose skill lay in deciding whetherahe moment was propitious. They. needed no special qualifications in the subject on which they were consulted any more than the food taster for the oriental despot 'was expected to be a gourmet. The skill of the augurs lay in torturing an auspicious significance out of such unpromising material as the entrails of a chicken.
While nobody supposes that Lord. Hinton will practise vivisection in order to come up with the right answers to the problems set him by the Minister of Transport, his functions have a great deal in common with those of the augurs of old. The subject of transport, has apparently become so fraught with mystery and apprehension that no aspect of it can be tackled without bringing in at least one major industrialist and half the economistsin the country' to pick over the bones and deliver the judgment of the gods.
The process is a developing one, like a bad habit which grows worse. For most of the time Mr. Ernest Marples, however massive and genuine the problem in hand. was content to call in a Beeching, a Buchanan or a Hall to point the way towards a solution. Except in the light of what has now happened, it did not seem particularly sinister that he should have preferred a committee rather than an individual to advise on the licensing system, although the more perspicacious among the observers were a little suspicious when Mr. Marples threw to the same committee the pseudo-problem of track costs. Even this step could have been written off as an aberration until the more recent nomination by The present Minister, Mr, Tom Fraser, of a whole lot of new augurs with what must be the most mysterious terms of reference since the sphinx posed her riddle to Oedipus.
What does he do?
It is worth examining closely exactly what Lord Hinton s supposed to do. He is to forecast the pattern of longlistance services required in the future, with particular 'eference to co-ordinating investment in highways and nilways. He is to find ways of achieving a properly con-dinated use of the main trunk route system, and :specially the right balance between the use of road and nil. He is also to suggest methods of improving operaional co-ordination between different forms of transport.
The questions to which Lord Hinton is expected to find in answer are inter-related and if one answer is wrong he remainder will be equally unreliable. Whatever nformation and advice are available, in the end it will only )e possible to make a guess. Nobody can tell what services vill be required in the future: the Hall report could get so nearer than the assumption that the present growth in .oad transport would continue. If this happens, the co)rdination of investment in highways and railways and the )alance between the use of road and rail will constantly )e changing and cannot be fixed at a certain stage in the vay that Lord Hinton is apparently supposed to ecommend.
This study should be of great assistance to the Government," Mr. Fraser told the. House of Commons last week, in making a fully informed judgment on the best means by which the nation may be provided with a highly efficient public transport system." This might well mean that the nation is crying out for such a system and is looking to the Government to provide it. Is there any evidence that this is the case? Certainly there is anxiety on specific points, such as the large railway deficits and the congestion
in the ,centre of towns. But there is no great popular demand for the somewhat -abstract line of inquiry now to be pursued by Lord Hinton.
Co-ordination?
Rather the reverse. Independent hauliers might be expected as an article of faith to oppose wholesale coordination. It is perhaps more convincing to have the same point of view expressed by the deputy chairman of the Transport Holding Company. Just a fortnight ago at the inaugural lunch of the new National Traders Traffic Association, Sir Reginald Wilson, after stating that coordination was useful in some fields such as containerization, stressed that this was no argument for nation-wide co-ordination of all freight services.
Traders and manufacturers would undoubtedly approve this sentiment. In a recent paper to the Portsmouth centre of the institute of Traffic Administration, Mr. L. A. Castleton, group transport officer, Metal Box Co. Ltd., took for granted that the customer found his freedom of choice an advantage. Mr. Castleton urged the user to examine more closely the alternatives available to him. He might find that not only could he switch traffic from rail to road more economically but that he could get a better service into the bargain.
Another of Mr. Castleton's themes was the fear of political intervention in transport. It is inevitably in this direction that Lord Hinton's investigation is tending. Like the politicians in ancient Rome the Minister has. already made up his mind in favour of co-ordination. What he now wants are the right auspices and he may well be confident that these will come to hand from the assortment of advisers he has assembled, including a transport advisory council of which he will take the chair himself and yet another economist. Dr. M. E. Beesley.
There has been a transport advisory council before. It was set up under the Road and Rail Traffic Act, 1933, and (believe it or not) its functions included advising and assisting the Minister on co-ordination. Its members were drawn from bodies actually interested or concerned in transport. Its occasional reports on specific subjects were greeted with great respect even il' nobody-took much notice of them. Naturally there was little for it to do during the war and it was quietly abolished by the Transport Act, 1947. At that time the Labour Government believed that they knew all the answers and had no need of advice. Who knows but that the obviously greater diffidence of the present Minister may after all be a happy augury!