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1984 and All That

19th February 1965
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Page 42, 19th February 1965 — 1984 and All That
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Which of the following most accurately describes the problem?

British Railways Report on Trunk Rou

, Buckley, Assoc. Inst. T "THE real choice is between an excessive and increasingly uneconomic system, with a corresponding tendency for the railways as a whole to fall into disrepute and decay, or the selective development and intensive utilization of a more lim:ted trunk route system." That is the blunt conclusion drawn in a study report entitled "The development of the major railway trunk routes", published on Tuesday. This 100-page report, which includes 27 maps and several statistical tables, is available from the British Railways Board, price 15s.

Even in the past the railway trunk route system had gross excess capac;ty. Current traffics use only one-third of the route capacity, the report discloses, and it is urgently necessary to cater for future traffics. Concurrently, however, the capacity of the system is being still further expanded by the effect of spending £85 m. and £100 m. a year respectively on railway maintenance and equipment to improve the system in its present form.

Fewer Route Miles This new report, in contrast, demonstrates that it is possible to channel the through movement over a reduced network of lines amounting to some 3,000 route miles rather than the 7,500 miles provided today. This study, it is claimed, can provide a basis for positive planning, as once the lines most likely to form the trunk rail network during the next 20 years have been determined, then it will be possible to concentrate investment on the selective routes in confidence that, on this railway of the future, the essential dense flows of traffic will 'be maintained.

Be that as it may, road operators will be particularly interested in the section of the report dealing with the pattern of transport demand between main centres in 1984. After dealing with the specialized traffics (coal, oil, iron and steel), general merchandise and passenger traffic prospects are then reviewed. This category is estimated to offer very substantial traffic potential and, moreover, this potential is expected to grow roughly in proportion to the growth of the economy. By 1984 it is expected to be about 120 per cent higher than now, if an average growth rate in in the gross national product of four per cent per annum is achieved. But it is in this category of general merchandise that competition between road and rail is "bound to be most vigorous and where most needs to be done to ensure that each form of transport provides those services for which it is best suited ".

Track Costs Again The report then harks back to track costs and the Railways Board's view that heavy road vehicles on trunk routes do not meet their track costs. The Beech ing report showed that major changes were required both in the selection of traffic and the service offered by the railways in order to concentrate on carrying longdistance bulk traffic efficiently and economically, as forecast in the liner train services. The railways consider they would then be able to take their share of growth in this category of traffic instead of carrying a declining volume in a market of growing potential.

The report then discloses that at present some 70 m. tons per annum of freight are carried by road in direct trunk hauls for distances over 100 miles, and about 46 m. tons per annum over more than 150 miles. Only part of this traffic, the report continues, can be regarded as suitable for movement by liner trains because these show to their greatest advantage only over the longer distances. Significantly, in the actual Beeching report of 1963, liner train costs were reckoned to be lower than road costs " for distances of about 100 miles ". Now this new report states that most of this merchandise traffic would be moving 150 miles or more and that the average length of liner train hauls would be about 200 miles. It is also reckoned that if total traffic demand grows by an expected 120 per cent by 1984, liner trains services will then carry 57 m. tons of traffic per annum. But if charges for trunk road use were increased for larger freight vehicles generally, this would "tend to augment the long-term assessment of liner train potential and, under such circumstances, the 1984 liner train tonnage might reach 80 million ".

1984's Freight

The total volume of trunk rail freight between main centres as estimated for 1984 is 24,500m. ton-miles per annum compared with 12.000 m. in 1964. A corresponding assessment of road freight movement between main centres in 1984, covering traffic expected to be hauled on journeys of over 100 miles, shows a total of 17,500 m, ton-miles. The total volume of trunk movement by rail represents an increase of 100 per cent compared with 60 per cent by road. But this does not represent the overall position for road and rail traffic because it is to be expected that there will be predominant growth of road traffic over the shorter distances.

In dealing with future passenger traffic demands on the railway trunk system it is accepted that stopping services on trunk routes will decline. Regarding business travel it is estimated that the proportion of people employed in industrial jobs likely to necessitate travel will increase very considerably. Growth in the standard of living and in leisure time will generate an increase in personal travel for social purposes which will greatly reinforce the increase to be expected from the 15 per cent growth in the population likely to occur by 1984. The report continues that it seems reasonable to assume that inter-city passenger traffic will be at least twice as great in

[984 as it is at present, although the railways' share is likely to decline•substanially. Over distances of 200 miles air ransport is likely to take an increasing 'Proportion of the total traffic and the :ffects upon Anglo-Scottish rail services nr day is already very pronounced and ikely to increase, hut the effect of overtight services is far less marked.

Regarding distances below 100 irivate transport is the main competitor Or business and social passenger traffic -reinforced, in the case of social travel, 'y coach services. The report adds that with improvements in roads and growth n car ownership further erosion of the thorter distance inter-city traffic on rail • likely. More Cars by Rail By 1984, three-quarters of all housetolds are .likely to own a car and a ninority will have two or more cars. )nce cars are acquired, their use is not laminated by economic considerations Ind despite an often expressed opinion o the contrary the railways could not !xpeet to retain a great part of the traffic '3/ fare reductions. Nevertheless an :xpansion of conveyance of accompanied notorcars can be expected.

The role of the railways would be to aincentrate upon the provision of bulk iassenger transport over routes of heavy lemand and over medium to long disances. They would leave shorter disances and cross-country journeys to :caches and the private car. Only by so Icing would it be possible for the railvays to keep fares at an attractive competitive level. Services, the report claims, you'd be frequent and operate at point0-point speeds of at least 70 m.p.h.

The 27 maps included in the report set iut in detail the location of the existing ,500 route miles of through routes, the elected routes and the flows of traffic oetween the main centres, both now and .5 estimated in 1984. Correspondingly, here are statistical tables giving similar nformation in detail.

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Organisations: British Railways Board

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