By A. E. Sherlock-Mesher, F.R.S.A. Viscount Nuffield, Sir Patrick Hennessy,
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Mr. Robert F. Fryars, Mr. Jackson Millar, Lt.-Cdr. J. W. Thornycroft, Mr: E. R. Foden, Mr. C. Basil Nixon, Mr. Sydney S. Guy, Mr. James Leek and Mr. G. N. Vansittart Discuss Trade Trends and Express Their Views on Shows
F41XPORTS of commercial vehicles have risen so sharply this year that one wonders how long the
pace can be maintained. Ability to export is governed by factors other than the physical capacity of British manufacturers to produce vehicles. It depends on world trade conditions, the availability of steel and other materials and now on the extent of the process of rearmament.
Business done by individual manufacturers at the Commercial Motor Show in September does not offer a reliable guide to the future of export trade. Visitors from overseas were fewer than in 1948, and Mr. Robert F. Fryars, chairman and managing director of A:C.V. Sales, Ltd , says that many of the inquiries made by them were prompted mainly by curiosity
Interest Sustained Sir Patrick Hennessy, deputy chairman and managing iirector of the Ford Motor Co., Ltd., points out that Any decline in overseas interest "is understandable, because the 1948 Exhibition was the first to be held in the post-war period and no general showing of commercial vehicles had taken-place for 11 years." Nevertheless, Sir Patrick assures me that in his own company's case, the interest evinced in 1948 was sustained throughout this year's Show.
The Daimler Co., Ltd., E.R.F., Ltd., and Vauxhall Motors, Ltd., were fortunate in experiencing an increase in overseas inquiries, but most makers found that the number was smaller. What the Nuffield Organisation lacked in numbers it made up in quality, for Viscount Nuffield, the chairman, says that although "there were not so many overseas visitors, those who came were serious buyers" Despite what seems to have been a disappointing response to the Show from overseas, most manufacturers are confident that the present rate of exports will continue, and some think that, with an improvement in the international situation and the intelligent handling of the rearmament programme, it may even increase. "The number of orders actually placed will be conditioned by the finance available," says Lt.-Cdr. J. W. Thornycroft, chairman and managing director of Transport Equipment (Thornycroft), Ltd. "In a number of countries where import restrictions are very severe, commercial-vehicle users are still prepared to pay very high prices."
At the same time, many makers regard the present rate of export as too high for economic stability and suggest 50 per cent of output as a reasonable maximum for shipment overseas. Mr. E. R. Foden, joint managing director of E.R.F., Ltd., would prefer a limit of 40 per elS cent. Mr. C. Basil Nixon, governing director of Leyland Motors, Ltd., thinks that under present conditions the percentage must be variable.
Although international difficulties are a constant source of anxiety to exporters, the prospects of business overseas seem to be brighter than those in the home market. The smaller "gale" at the Show supports that view. "The nationalizing of various industries has reduced the number of individuals responsible for purchasine vehicles," Sir Patrick Hennessy points out. "For every bulk order placed by a buyer in a nationalized industry, the probability is that as many as ten individual purchasers would have been interested in the past."
Purchase tax appears to have been effective in curtailing home demand, at least in Sir Patrick's experience. His company observed a "distinct resentment on the part of most operators" to the tax, and a "determination somehow or other to make their present vehicles last much longer." This was particularly the case with small operators. This view is endorsed by Lt.-Cdr. Thornycroft, who says that many C-licensees will refrain from renewing their fleets.
Visitors to the Show had their money's worth in technical interest, but are the manufacturers equally satisfied with the results? The " heavy "' makers, at least, always find that shows dislocate production, but most manufacturers of all types of vehicle now seem to consider that the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders was justified in holding a Commercial Motor Exhibition this year.
Exhibit Overseas Among the dissenting voices are those of Mr. Fryars, Mr. Jackson Millar, chairman of Albion Motors, Ltd., and Lt.-Cdr. Thornycroft. Mr. Millar found little evidence of business done at the Show. The view of Lt.-Cdr. Thornycroft is that the money spent could have been better used in supporting exhibitions overseas. Mr. Nixon also finds that better results accrue, at least in the export markets, from exhibiting in overseas shows. Nevertheless, some big orders were booked by Leyland Motors, Ltd.
Sir Patrick Hennessy, on the other hand, points out that dealers are unable to acquire mode lr for stock and showroom display, and that, apart froth the Show, the only opportunity of comparing rival makes is by means of the printed word.
Mr. Sydney S. Guy, managing director of Guy Motors, Ltd., takes the view that the development of the underfloor-engined chassis justified the Show as a technical spectacle, although he is not yet able to weigh up the financial side of the question. Viscount Nuffield and Mr James Leek, managing director of the Daimler Co., Ltd., both maintain that the Exhibition stimulated overseas business and thereby justified itself.
Speaking on this question, Mr. G. N. Vansittart, chairman of Vauxhall Motors, Ltd., says: " We . approached it with long-term values in mind—to build LIP interest in and knowledge of a new range of vehicles; to meet and discuss mutual problems with operators at home and abroad; to 'show the flag' both in a national and an engineering sense—and we were eminently satisfied with the results." At the same time, he points out the difficulty of evaluating the Show economically. "The old yardstick of direct sales no longer applies," he says. "In an oversold market the indefinite equation of general interest and long-term inquiries takes its place, and measurement becomes more opinion and guesswork than simple arithmetic."
How does business done at this year's Show compare with that obtained in 1948? "About the same" is Mr. Fryars's comment, but Mr. Miller and Mr. Leek found that there was a decline. Mr. Leek points out that in 1948 operators were trying to replace their rolling stock after the war-time shortage of new vehicles. Mr. E. R. Foden and Mr. Guy report that their companies did better business this year. Mr. Vansittart tells me that overseas business secured by Vauxhall Motors, Ltd., showed a marked increase.
I..t.-Cdr. Thornycroft does not think that a fair comparison can be made between the two Shows, because in 1948 all manufacturers had large order books and wei e unable to quote reasonable deliveries. Moreover, 1948 provided users with the first opportunity, after 11 years, of seeing the products of all exhibitors together. "The position in 1950 is very different for the quality specialist light and medium commercial vehicle manufacturers and the heavies," he adds. Purchase tax has delivered them "a knock-out blow," The Next Show The question now arises: When should the next Show be held? Mr. Leek thinks that the present system of staging it every two years should he continued, Sir Patrick Hennessy and Mr. Guy suggest an interval of two to three years. Mr Nixon, who favours a threeyearly period, and Lord Nuffield do not want another Commercial Motor Show until 1953. Mr. E. R.. Foden suggests that the next should be held in three or four years time. Lt.-Cdr. Thornycroft, who prefers overseas exhibitions, does not favour a British Show before 1954, and feels that the interval should be four years. Mr. Fryars goes still further; he has had enough of Shows until 1955!
I asked manufacturers whether they would like to see any change made in the next Show. There is a general clamour for greater floor space, but there is no desire for any radical alteration, and I found no support for the suggestion that goods and passenger vehicles should
be exhibited in separate halls. Sir Patrick Hennessy points out that many features are common to both goods and passenger vehicles, and that a combination of the two types in one hall encourages visitors to widen their outlook. Mr. Vansittart draws attention to the duplication of effort add cost involved in exhibiting simultaneously in two separate halls, and he adds, "The user of both kinds of transport would hardly welcome the idea of paying twice or journeying from one hail to another."
Lt.-Cdr, Thornycroft expresses the views of many manufacturers when he says that twice the present floor
space is needed. Mr. Guy comments: "The question of a much larger exhibition hall in London, which a number of industries feels so necessary, is of national importance, because the size of our buildings compares very unfavourably with some of those abroad. It should not be outside the bounds of practicability for the various industries concerned, with the co-operation of the Government, to make some arrangements for one oi the existing halls to be extended."
Mr. Nixon regrets that many interesting specialpurpose vehicles were crowded out of the Show, and calls for better ventilation and improved catering, as well as for greater space. He comments, rather naughtily, "We feel that Government grants could be more usefully employed in providing a really adequate exhibition hall than in such minor projects as the Festival of Britain."
Neither the S.M.M.T, nor the exhibitors can reasonably be blamed for the overcrowding of stands. The tendency for vehicles to increase in size has aggravated the problem, and the need for a larger hall is urgent. I doubt, .however, whether, within the limits of the available accommodation, the Show has kept pace in presentation with the advance in appearance of the vehicles that it contains.
"Mad Medley of Assertiveness" Percy Smith, a master of calligraphy, wrote: "Bad letters, wrongly placed, disfigure our buildings; they deface the aspects of our busier streets; at our annual exhibitions, rioting in a mad medley of assertiveness, they are seen perhaps at their worst." He might, when he poured out those plaintive words, almost have come straight from the Commercial Motor Show I can well imagine that the confusion of lettering, much of it ugly, on the red, fringed banners hanging over the vehicle and bodybuilders' stands, would have offended his taste. The banners themselves belong more to the traditional theatre than to a modern trade exhibition, and I should like to see a new kind of sign, with well-designed, uniform lettering, devised for the next Show.
I feel also that there is scope for improvement in the presentation of vehicles on some of the stands. The Thornycroft stand, with its pale green and cream chassis, and notices and furnishings to match, was a model of good taste. Uniformity in the colouring of exhibits is not always practicable, but where it was practised, as on also the Atkinson, Bedford and Morris-Commercial stands, the resuk was extremely pleasing.
"Janus," taking time off from politics to study the Show, has already expressed regret that greater use was not made of the opportunity to emphasize the ramifications of the industry, and its achievements and problems. I also believe that a central theme is required, to make the Exhibition appear to be more the co-ordinated effort of a great industry than a collection of vehicles and equipment brought together for convenience of display. More could be done, for instance, to tell the industry's remarkable export story, perhaps by means of topographical models suspended on the level of the galleries.
It would be instructive to take the opinion of a panel of expert induitrial designers and exhibition specialists on the planning of the Show as a prestige-builder for the whole industry and as an industrial fair promoted for the profit of the individual concerns taking part in it. An exhibition held by an industry which, in its products, achieves such a high standard of industrial design, should represent all that is best in modern display and marketing methods.