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Europe forecast

17th December 1983
Page 16
Page 16, 17th December 1983 — Europe forecast
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A "MODEST RECOVERY" in commercial vehicle production in Europe in 1984 is forecast in the latest report from the DRI Europe consultancy group.

DRI expects the increase to come almost entirely from the reviving European market, with no significant growth of nonEuropean sales expected before 1985.

In 1982, 51 per cent of the medium and heavy trucks (over 3.5 tonnes gvw) manufactured in the seven main European countries were exported out of Europe. DRI forecasts that this percentage will fall to 39 in 1985 before recovering slightly later in the eighties.

Registrations of 3.5-tonnesplus vehicles in the four largest EEC markets, West Germany, France, UK and Italy, are expected to rise by less than 6 per cent in 1984 while continuing decline in the light commercial sector (less than 3.5 tonnes gvw, including car-derived vans but not psv or 4x4s) is forecast.

DRI foresees "no let up in the price war that has affected France and the UK in particular". Leyland, which has recently begun to sell Roadtrain in France, will be disappointed to see that that country is expected to be the weakest of the European truck markets in the next two years. RVI's falling home market share "will continue to be vulnerable" says the report.

It is much more optimistic about the UK market next year predicting a 13 per cent increase in registrations of medium and heavy trucks, and a 15 per cent increase for tractive units, but sales for light commercials are expected to fall by 6 per cent in 1984.

The 1 2 5-page European Trucks Forecast Report gives forecasts of registrations, production, use and parc, by detailed gvw sectors, for eight European countries. It is available, at a cost of £800, from DRI Europe Ltd, 30 Old Queen Street, St James's Park, London.

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