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New cvs up again, and 1983 is looking better

15th January 1983
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Page 71, 15th January 1983 — New cvs up again, and 1983 is looking better
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Which of the following most accurately describes the problem?

Figures just out reveal that last year's turnaround in commercial vehicle sales was maintained; and a 9 per cent increase in registrations this year is predicted. Alan Millar examines the latest statistics.

THE WORST may be over for commercial vehicle manufacturers selling goods vehicles in the United Kingdom. As predicted a year ago, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders' statistics show a six per cent overall increase in new registrations last year, compared with 1981, when the market shrunk by 19.9 per cent.

Total commercial vehicle sales, including buses and coaches, were 231,014, a rise from 217,812 in 1981, and both British and foreign manufacturers scored increases. The lighter end of the market has done best, while the bus and coach sector, which has been slower to react to the recession, continued to plummet.

Further recovery is expected this year, and the Economist Intelligence Unit, which came close to predicting last year's total figures, estimates that the 1983 market will grow by another 9.1 per cent to around 250,000 vehicles, with importers doing slightly better than British manufacturers.

The SMMT divides the market into five sectors. Light vans, generally, are car-derived models but not one ton pick-ups; medium and heavy vans cover vehicles from one to 3.5 tonnes; trucks and arks are all vehicles of over 3.5 tonnes; light 4x4 vehicles are now dominated by goods models and no longer include the Range Rover or Mercedes G-Series passenger models which once were listed as commercials; and buses and coaches cover the entire psv market.

While some manufacturers may claim different market shares, particularly in sectors of the truck and artic category in ovhich they do better (such as in over-2 8 tonners), we have confined this analysis to the SMMT sectors in order to give equal treatment to each manufacturer.

Although Ford remains market leader in the over-3.5 tonne sector, with sales of 10,193 Cargo, D-Series, and A-Series, its commanding lead is slipping, for it has fallen from 10,722 vehicles sold in the more difficult times of 1981.

This sector is the one most affected by the collapse in demand for road haulage, and it has been attacked fiercely by European manufacturers like Mercedes which have bought an increased share of the British market as their home markets have fallen. Ford also has suf fered from some market resistance to the Cargo which may have diverted business elsewhere.

Bedford, which is looking to its autonomous status within General Motors as a passport to better times, did better than its overall figures suggest. While truck and artic sales fell throughout the year from 7,386 to 6,479, the company staged a substantial recovery in December and beat Ford into second place with 828 sales to Ford's 800. But Bedford sales fell to reach this figure, and Ford's rose.

Leyland's sales fell from 7,183 to 6,064, Seddon Atkinson's fell from 2,043 to 1,718, Foden's from 535 to 522, and Karrier's from 4,909 to 4,785, with drops in both Dodge and Renault sales. It will be 1984 before Britishmade Renaults make any impact on this performance. On the other hand, ERF is showing promising signs of recovery, with sales up from 1,179 to 1,348 as the C-Series establishes itself.

Anyone wondering why such strong market leaders as Ford, Bedford, and Leyland are losing their market share need only look at who is in fourth position: Mercedes-Benz, with sales up from 2,492 to 3,650, has overtaken Volvo which also is increasing its hold on the market.

Volvo already has an apparently invincible lead in the over-28-tonne sector, and has been pushing hard to sell its F6 medium-weight model. Its 7.6 per cent share of the total market represents a jump from 2,536 to 3,433 vehicles, of which the number of British-built lorries has risen from 634 to 827. Scania, with new models and an overhauled distribution network, has staged a spectacular leap in its fortunes, increasing sales from 908 to 1,499, grabbing ERF's 10th place in the league, and coming within a whisker of overtaking Seddon Atkinson.

Ford's disappointment with the trend in the over-3.5-tonne sector is more than compensated by its massively expanded share of the medium and heavy van market. The Transit alone has led this market for 16 years, and its sales rose last year from 32,493 to 43,726.

In addition, the Cortina-derived P100 one-tonne pick-up imported from South Africa has already won 3,490 sales or 3.3 per cent of the medium/heavy sector after only six months on the market. The Transit figures include 4x4 models.

The heart of Ford's strategy has been to head off Japanese and European imports. It increased the number of standard items in the Transit specification last spring, and promoted the model very heavily.

Whether it was just competitors' marketing or the effect of stricter import quotas, the Japanese manufacturers have lost much of the ground they gained in 1981. Datsun has lost its fifth position to Mercedes, which was only in 10th position in 1981. Total sales of Japanese vans in this sector, including Bedford's KB-range built by Isuzu, fell last year from 25,051 to 15,744, representing a collapse from 25.4 per cent to 14.8 per cent. Daihatsu was the only Japanese manufacturer to increase sales, from 1,571 to 2,300.

Freight Rover's efforts to rescue the Sherpa are beginning to bear fruit, with sales up from 8,540 to 9,617, and the company is looking for greater things when the MT210 3.5-tonne "big Sherpa" is launched this year. It has managed to slip ahead of Volkswagen and MAN-VW, which pushed up sales from 8,670 to 9,030, but which can be expected to stage a revival with its impending launch of the Yugoslavian-built Caddy one-tonne pick-up and the rationalising of its UK sales company.

Renault's first full year on the market has pushed Trafic and Master sales from 1,531 to 3,203, although the smaller Trafic is selling better and the company is looking to Karrier dealers to sell the Master this year.

Talbot's huge fall in sales is the result of production of the long-running Spacevan finally having ended. The Italian-built Express notched up 73 sales last year, but Spacevan's British Telecom sales look like going Freight Rover's way, at least for the time being.

The light van market was another triumph for Ford, with the Fiesta and Escort models achieving a record share with sales up from 22,065 to 26,547. Spanish Fiesta imports rose from 3,303 to 4,674. Austin Rover's increase from 17,899 to 18,385 vans was helped by the introduction of a Metro van last year, but the absence of a frontwheel-drive replacement for the Morris Ital van may prove a handicap this year.

Bedford is claiming increased penetration, with its front-wheeldrive Astra van accounting for 1,616 of the 12,110 vans it sold last year. Post Office business for the elderly HA Viva-derived van has also helped boost Bedford's sales.

While Japanese sales in this sector fell from 1,554 to 1,481, the Korean Hyundai, in its first six months on the market, has already achieved 517 sales or 0.8 per cent of the light van market. Korea is one of the countries with which Britain has no reciprocal agreement, and it is conceivable that this one manufacturer could outsell the entire Japanese industry in the UK this year.

The light 4x4 sector is dominated by Land Rover, which won 59 per cent of the 10,181vehicle market. In 1981, it had a 51 per cent share of an 11,121vehicle market. Daihatsu came next with 12.1 per cent, then Subaru with 10.1 per cent, Toyota with 9.7 per cent, Suzuki with 3.9 per cent, Bedford' KB44 with 1.8 per cent, and Jee with 1.6 per cent.

The bus and coach figures al the product of violently cor

flicting trends in the two sector of the psv business. The overa drop in the market for ner vehicles is due almost entirely t the fall-off in demand for ne, stage carriage buses, bet double-deckers and single-de( city buses.

The rise in the fortunes of Di and Volvo lies in the swing awE from lightweight to heavy-dui coaches. Metro-Cammell mann's reduced market shar with sales down from 627 to 41 has been caused by the drop orders from London Transpor and it is doubtful whether if company's coach manufacturir ambitions will progress fa enough this year to prevent from losing its number two po; tion to Volvo.

Leyland's market share hi fallen below 50 per cent for tt first time in many years 1978 it had over 65 per cent the bus and coach market b the continuing success of ti Tiger and launch of the Roy Tiger look like winning it high sales this year at the expense some of the smaller importe which have made short-ter gains. The removal of the form bond between National Bus ar Leyland, following National disposal of its shares in Bi Manufacturers Holdings, rni lead later to Dennis and MCW particular winning some of ti market which the leader enjo at present.


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