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Statistical Problem

14th September 1962
Page 98
Page 98, 14th September 1962 — Statistical Problem
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Which of the following most accurately describes the problem?

WITH the wide open road as their territory, the statisticians of the Ministry of Transport must often run into trouble. For a general survey, they may have to collect information from a wide variety of road users in a wide variety of circumstances at all hours of the day and night and at all seasons of the year. In the end, their findings, or the way in which they are presented, may be of little or no use for the purposes for which they are, required. At other times, a good deal U work may have to be devoted to an inquiry that, if one is honest, is not particularly important, but happens to be thought so by an influential section of the community. This usually means that the inquiry is set on foot in order to settle a dispute. and, because of the nature of disputes, rarely succeeds in its purpose.

THE much publicized smoke checks on vehicles provide an example of this kind of investigation. There can be no denying that the smoke is a nuisance and ought to be mitigated. Much of the anger it generates, however, is misdirected. For example, careful experiments have shown that any danger to health from diesel smoke is infinitesimal. They have made little difference to the accusations that lorries are polluting the air and putting up the mortality rate. The checks were carried out partly in order to meet the unabated clamour.

A small army of examiners was spread out over 95 checkpoints, very likely chosen at places where a diesel engine could be expected to smoke if it was ever going to do so. For lack of a suitable measuring device, only visual estimates could be made, but they were. no doubt as accurate as it was possible to be. Offenders revealed under these conditions were not treated harshly. For the most part, reasonable time was allowed for defects to be put right. In some other cases, warning letters or subsequent visits from the Ministry's inspectors were deemed to suffice. Immediate prohibitions for the carriage of goods were placed on only 40 vehicles out of a total of 25,000 that were observed.

The results summarized above refer to the second check, made on June 19, and follow very much the same pattern as the previous check a month previously. On both occasions, the main -criticism from operators was that the results were presented too sensationally. The extremely small proportion of prohibitions was noted without comment. The emphasis was on the fact that one in every eight of the observed vehicles was making smoke, and there was no suggestion that the circumstances might have been exceptional.

PROBABLY. little can be gained from pursuing this controversy. There remains the lurking doubt whether the investigation is proving as valuable as the Ministry would like to suggest. The problem of diesel fumes is complex. Where too much smoke is emitted, the fault may lie, it is generally admitted, with either the vehicle, or the lack of maintenance, or with the weight of the load, or with the driver, or even with the fuel. Determined efforts have been, and are being, made by the Ministry, by operators, and by manufacturers, to deal with each of these aspects. The best progress will surely be made along these lines

rather than by a somewhat theatrical concentration of th normal roadside tests.

There are so many other things on which work need to be done. Among the many useful statistical exercise carried out by the Ministry is the analysis of road casualties On this subject, there should be real concern by commercia vehicle operators. According to the latest returns, cover ing the first half of 1962, the largest increase in casualtie was among goods-vehicle drivers and passengers; the num ber killed and seriously injured rose by 12 per cent Here is a statistic whose tragic importance cannot b exaggerated, and it would be worth a good deal to discove the reason for the deterioration.

As usual, the complexity of the road situation present the chief difficulty. If the problem is considered strictl objectively, the responsibility could be sought among th drivers, the vehicles, the road conditions, the flow of traffii and any number of other circumstances or combination them. In the absence of further figures that may throv light on the subject, it is possible to do no more than malt+ one or two guesses or suggestions.

IT can hardly be supposed that the drivers or the vehicle are to blame. There have in any event been few change

since the year previously, when the standard of lorry, driver was generally recognized as excellent. Jf anything, thi braking performance and other qualities of the vehicle have improved. To a limited extent some improvement ha also been made in the roads.

Traffic has increased much more rapidly than the amour) of road space available. The Ministry estimate that tota motor traffic was three per cent. more in the first six month of 1962 than in the corresponding period last year. So fa from this having anything to do with the much more rapic increase in the number of casualties among drivers am passengers in goods vehicles, it would appear to b( altogether irrelevant. In spite of the denser traffic, the tota of casualties among all road users actually decreased 13! three per cent., and the number of road deaths fell ever more notably by six per cent., from 3,187 to 2,999. Tc some extent, the explanation lies in a 17 per cent. and V per cent. decrease in motorcycle and pedal cycle traffic matched by corresponding decreases of 15 per cent. and 12 per cent. respectively in the casualties suffered by these twc types of road user and their passengers. On the other hand car traffic increased by seven per cent, and car drive, casualties by six per cent., but goods vehicle mileages wer. about the same in the first half of each year, so that thc leap of 12 per cent. in casualties remains a mystery.

The explanation must lie elsewhere. It is possible, fat example, that the habits or the routine of goods vehicles are changing. There has been mounting concern with tht problem created by the tendency of many traders and manufacturers to make their premises available for loading and unloading for a shorter and shorter period during the day, and not at all at week-ends. To meet the new conditions. goods vehicle drivers may find themselves on the road at less favourable times, when by the law of averages they arc more likely to be involved in an accident. Such a specula. tion at least shows what a wide variety of reasons there may be for the higher casualty rate, and indicates a set of circumstances that may repay investigation by the people concerned.

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Organisations: Ministry of Transport

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