FIGURES
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Tell Fortunes!
by William R. Buckland, B.Sc. (Econ.) Ph.D., F.I.S., F.S.S. IT is a simple fact that the force behind the demand for passenger transport is people: where and how they live, work, shop, go to school and play. The passenger transport operator will know a great deal about this from first-hand experience, but if he wishes to keep his long-term plans in step with other trends, his day-to-day experience must be combined with knowledge of the broader picture of the spending power and habits of prospective passengers.
The collection and publication of what is generally called " descriptive " statistical material are much better now than they -were 20 years or more ago, a development for which the Central Statistical Office is largely responsible. For those who would like to read something of this development there is a Stationery Office pamphlet, "Government Statistical Services," which gives a real meaning to the word "service," and an appendix lists the subjects covered by the various Government departments and offices.
Welter of Material Amid the welter of material available in various publications there is a small group about which these others seem to revolve. These are the "Annual Abstract of Statistics," " Monthly Digest of Statistics," "Economic Trends" (monthly), "Board of Trade Journal" (weekly). and " Ministry of Labour Gazette" (monthly).
One of the difficulties of making the fullest use of statistical material is to know what is available and where. It is no small part of the merit of the new-style "Annual Abstract of Statistics " that it is attractively presented and indexed. It gives a valuable reference list of sources for each set of figures, and the name, or source, of the original publication from which the abstract has been compiled. The principal sections of the " Abstract " deal with such topics as population, social conditions, education, labour, production, trade, transport, finance and prices.
Up-to-date Figures The "Monthly Digest" and "Economic Trends" give up-to-date figures, where available, in a form similar to that used in the "Abstract." These publications open the door to a wide range of statistical information which can be made to play its part in building up background knowledge.
Apart from the figures appearing in these five publications, the most revealing statistics about people and their social background are those relating to the census of population, taken three years ago, of which reports are now appearing in a steady stream. The 1951 census is contained in county reports and, although all these are not yet available, a word with a bookseller or direct to the Stationery Office will ensure that you do not miss what you want.
These reports contain detailed information on the numbers of people, their age, sex, marriage status, housing conditions and broad social gradings, together with information on what may he termed the" school" population. Explanatory notes are given, and details of other census reports to be published. Of these, the .proposed volume covering what is described as the "Usual Residence and Workplace Movement" is the most important, because it deals with that vital part Of passenger transport, the journey to work. A similar report was available from the last census, taken in 1921.
A picture of the economic and social background of the people whose activities provide the demand for passenger transport services is built up from this information, and it enables a start to be made on the difficult task of penetrating behind the veil of routine information on receipts, passengers carried and carmileage.
For example, if housing conditions are good and people have amenities such as gardens, they are not so keen to search for recreation outside their homes. This question is not new but, like all social questions, it is complicated.
Current information on the number of people in a particular area is available in the quarterly returns of the Registrar General for England and Wales, or for Scotland. Similar. information with respect to new houses can be obtained from the Ministry of Local Government's monthly housing return.
Housing figures for the local areasof England and Wales come from theMinistry of Housing and Local Government, both in respect of num-. hers and of such matters as rateable. values (which can be useful pointers
to local economic conditions). In Scotland, however, the numbers of new houses come from the Health Department, and the information on rateable values from the Scottish Home Department. In Northern Ireland, the Ministry of Health and Local Government is responsible for. both, Cross-purposes Simple though this may appear, it has been responsible for many a potential user of statistics getting at cross-purposes and not finding what he wants quickly. This can Ix avoided by using " Governmerd Statistical Services" or the Index to Sources in the "Abstract of Statistics."
There are no useful figures published of where people work in relation to their homes. The operator will know where, and at what times, he has to carry those who are going to and from work, and his real concern for the future lies with new factories or offices, and extensions, oi the closing-down, of existing places of work.
Although the forthcoming census will give some basic data, this information is best obtained by local contacts, particularly local Employment Exchanges. An important point here is in connection with the population of working age and the future trend of this quantity. From time to time the "Ministry of Labour Gazette" contains special articles on general topics of this kind.
Pattern of Travel Work, shopping and school provide the basis of the pattern of travel for the household. This central core of " essential 'travel is supplemented by recreational journeys; visits to the cinema or theatre, sporting events and other activities. There is little published information which could add materially to the figures of "school " population already referred to, or to the fund of local experience of schoottravel.
In the case of shopping and n23 recreational journeys, however, the operator's interest lies as much in what happens at the end of the journey as in the journey itself. Attention given to the way in which people spend their money is rewarding in that it reveals something of the economic well-being of those who are also passengers.
The main source of information in the case of shopping is the retail trade figures Collected by the Board of Trade and published monthly in the " Board of Trade Journal." Each year there is a comprehensive review of retail trade for the retail trading year ending in January. Apart from information on the various sections of retail trade, grouped broadly into food and perishables and non-food merchandise, the operator will be interested in the figures for the various geographical regions.
Personal Consumption
Other sources of information on "shopping," in the sense of personal consumption of various kinds, are the " Monthly Digest of Statistics," and, in much greater detail, the annual Blue Book on National Income and Expenditure. The disadvantage here is that there is no geographical breakdown, and they cannot be easily related to the scale of operations of the medium or small operator. Nevertheless, they should not be overlooked.
New registrations and current licences of mechanically propelled road vehicles published by the Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation are worth examining for, although this form of " shopping " is of a luxury kind, it constitutes a method of spending which has a marked reaction on the demand for passenger transport facilities,
Local Figures
In this case, some of the figures are available in a detailed geographical subdivision. There is also an annual census of vehicles for which licences are current at any time during the three months ended September 30, which is published about the middle of the following year.
The most useful guide to recreation are the attendance figures of, for example, the cinema, football matches and racing (horses, dogs and motor cycling), and other attractions of a local nature. Only in the case of the cinema, unfortunately, is the available information reasonable. The "Board of Trade Journal" publishes, quarterly, articles devoted to various aspects of the film industry. In addition to sum manes of attendances and receipts, subdivided into B24 the main areas of Great Britain, there are tabulations on such topics as children's and Sunday performances and prices of admission.
Much of the material on the cinema so far collected by the Board of Trade is to be published in the "Journal of The Royal Statistical Society (Series A)," this year. Entitled "Cinemas and Cinema Going in Great Britain," it will, in due course, be available as a reprint. This paper also contains some interesting material on the influence of television on cinema-going and, therefore, on passenger travel.
There are other publications and, indeed, other methods which are useful in building up background information of the area with which the individual operator is concerned, but the only way to discover these is to start with the main publications and then branch out into the byways. Many municipal authorities issue their own abstracts and yearbooks, and some, e.g. Birmingham Corporation, have first-class seatistical services of their own.
The quality of a statistical service is only as good as is warranted by the use it receives. If, therefore, you cannot find what you require, then ask the source responsible for that class of information, for there is a great deal at present unpublished which can be made available to responsible persons having real problems.