From Our Australian Correspondent.
Page 11
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A Retrospect.
1910, from the point of view of the commercial vehicle in Australia, has been a success. When I wrote to you twelve months ago, I had to report that the prejudice which had to all intents and purposes precluded commercial vehicles from Australia was showing signs of breaking, and that one or two firms had adopted commercial vehicles with gratifying results. There was, however, every reason to believe that the prejudice would die hard and that the advance in numbers of commercial vehicles in use during the year would be very slow. This has not proved to be the came; the advance on all sides has been rapid in the extreme. The first few months of the year 191.0 brought a large influx of new cars handled by new firms, and these, together with the older firms that had done the genuine pioneering work, were soon inundated with inquiries from all quarters. Prospective buyers demanded extraordinary trials before taking delivery, while many others stood by and waited— unable to make up their minds. Even that phase, I notice, became less obvious as the year advanced. I venture -to predict that 1911 will see peoade falling over one another in their anxiety to obtain early delivery.
There are evidences that American manufacturers do not intend to leave the British alone in the Australian field. Two makes are already with us -the Grabowski and the Gramm. The former is much of the American truck type that people in England have learnt to ridicule, and one can hardly think that they can stand in competition with leading English makes, for, when all is said and done, for commercial work the question is not so much one of initial cost as it is one of pence per mile or per ton mile. The Gramm wagon I have not yet had the pleasure of seeing, but, if one may judge from the man who is importing it. it is likely to prove to be a model on European lines, and to be capable of competing with most standard vehicles. England is represented by some of its best makes, and if one goes abroad in any of the large towns one is sure to see Alhions, Commer Cars and Leylands about; this is a satisfactory sign. For some reason, those of standard Continental manufacture have not entered on the Australian market at all, and it is certain that some prejudice exists against the use of Continental commercial vehicles. It is very certain that the American commercial wagon is coming to Australia, and that when it does come in quantity it will receive a better hearing and more kindly welcome than was accorded in the first instance to the English machines. Australians generally are obsessed with the idea that they are more like Americans than any other people and that their conditions approximate most closely to those prevailing in the United States. That being the case they not unnaturally look more favourably on American than on British productions. Added to that it must be remembered that being a young people they have not yet overcome the tendency to buy in the cheapest market, and, here again, the Americans will have a great pull over British manufacturers. Lastly it must. be remembered that the same individuals will be selling these cars as are selling the English ones, and it is very certain that they will take most pains to push those which yield the greatest return on their capital. The taxicab has arrived and has been accepted. It is to-day almost impossible to visit a place of any pretensions without finding at least one or two taxicabs. Large towns are securing them in considerable numbers, and in this respect Sydney is leading other capitals with rather more thee 100, ranging from the fourcylinder Napier to the American Ford car and the 8 h.p. Renault. Most of the suburbs of these towns also have their taxis. and one can scarcely take a trip along any of the principal suburban lines without seeing these cabs waiting at the stations by the way. With the heavy cost of petrol and tires I feel very doubtful respecting the margin that will exist between working expenses and takings. The , number of (ache is increasing at present by leaps and bounds. and little or no attempt is being paid to working them economically ; I forsee a slump as severe as that which befell the motoromnibus industry, in England, in the year 1906, From it, of course, those will emerge who are both most competent and have learnt to watch the expenditure down to the utmost fraction of a farthing.
The motorbus industry here is dis appointing. Passenger transport is being conducted to a large extent by means of pleasure cars, which, as have already pointed out on a previous occasion, I can scarcely regard as likely to prove lucrative. On the other hand. in certain obscure country districts, individual men are employing single oars and are mailing huge profits out. of them. I cannot go so far as to say that they are making large fortunes, but I unhesitatingly say that if they are able to continue at the present. rate for a few more years they will secure a handsome competence. In some cases net. profits varying from 210 to 220 per week are being made by individuals who own and drive their own cars; but all this is happening " out back." The places where the public motor vehicle should be proving itself and where the greatest steady profit should be available still remain without motorbuses.
I am writing this from Sydney immediately after a military demonstration at which, for the first time in the history of the country, motors have been used for the transport of troops. The distance run was only a matter of eight miles, but 11 lorries and a number of touring cars were used, and covered the distance in just over halfan-hour. This will probably lead the Australian public to think furiously, as it is very certain that their beloved trams would not have accomplished the work; the question of defence is of paramount importance to the Almtralian mind at the present time.
One other feature to which I would yet refer, which, tan, I have not noticed to any extent in the development of the industry in England, is the mania that exists for speed. Horse-drawn vehicles, on account of the trams, bad roads and heavy gradients, always travelled far slower hero than they did in England, and if five miles an hour is averaged it is exceptionally fast. One would naturally think that the motor would be filling its own position by accomplishing a speed of eight or nine miles an hour, but wherever one goes one hears of average speeds of 16 and 20 miles an hour with loads up to three and four tons! It seems incredible, yet such is the case, and sellers outbid one another in random claims respecting the speed capabilities of their vehicles. They are doing so well that. while they are satisfied, they do not want to learn. Up to the present everything is excellent and could not be improved, yet if this state of things continues one dreads the thought of repair bills and claims in another twelve months. Cannot manufacturers issue a word of warning? To summarize, the industry is developing too rapidly ; 1911 will see the advent of the American ear and a slump at the end of the year or at the beginning of 1912, due to inexperience and uneconomic working. The need and possibilities of transport in Australia are so unlimited that it can be but of short duration; after this will come several years of steady progress and
increasing business. I do not view the situation in any spirit of alarm. Where rapid development takes place set-backs and slumps are inevitable, and those looming before us in Australia are small in comparison to others I have seen in other lands, and. here again' with the different development of the individual states, and the different temperaments of their inhabitants from the manufacturer's point of view, the effects of the slumps
will be minimized. E.F.B.