1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198 
In the doldrums
Page 20
If you've noticed an error in this article please click here to report it so we can fix it.
UK-based international operators aren't the only ones reporting a fall in activity; now many foreign operators are showing a decline. Does this herald an economic
lownturn? Jennifer Ball reports.
HE QUARTERLY bulletin by re Department for Transport on -oss-Channel freight traffic genrally carries depressing statistics n the UK's declining share of the iternational freight market. But ie latest figures reveal something Lse entirely, something that could erald an economic downturn. The figure being highlighted is ie total number of trucks travelrig from the UK to the Continent. the first quarter of this year it was 38,100 — down from 524,600 at the ad of 2004a fall ofjust over 7%. According to the Freight Transart Association this is the biggest ill in international traffic for 10 years. It highlights previous large falls in 1990, 1992 and 1995, all of which preceded recessions.
However, it's a figure that needs some context .The total traffic is still 5% up on the same time last year and UK-Continental freight traffic has doubled since 1995. So it's not necessarily all doom and gloom.
Even the perennial trend of dwindling volumes for UK hauliers has reversed slightly, with a firstquarter figure of 124,900 trucks: up 6% on the same period last year. Howe v er, it's also a 5.6% fall on the fourth quarter of 2004 and means the UK share of the market has shrunk to 261)/0, from 52% in 1996. As the FTA says, it's not a fall, but a fall in growth. In isolation the figure could be a blip. But when you take into account other economic data, such as the slowdown in manufacturing and falling house prices, it shows a wider pattern.
Gloomy outlook Respondents to the FTA's latest Quarterly Transport Activity Survey (QTAS) report tough trading conditions. This is despite sterling weakening against the Euro, which should be helping UK international hauliers and manufacturers.
The FTA's chief economist, Simon Chapman, says these figures are a concern: "In recent years the main preoccupation for UK-based international operators has been steadily declining market share as a result of sterling's strength against the Euro. But the latest data suggests operators face a new ball game with UK and foreign firms seeing similar levels of decline.
"Even East European operators, who have seen annual traffic volumes to the UK rise by a third, saw a fall in activity of 2% in the period. The figures add weight to gloomy reports of high street and in manufacturing trading conditions, and may be a presage of tough times ahead," he adds.
Martyn Moseley, MD of Olton International Freight, warns UK operators face an uphill struggle against Continental rivals: "There has been a definite slowdown in exports over the past couple of months, with UK manufacturers getting foreign hauliers to take the backloads.We just can't do the job for the same rates. They're killing the UK haulage industry and something needs to be done."
Chris Morgan, Datamonitor's Automotive & Logistics analyst, adds that the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's EU growth forecast for 2005 was warning, if not predictable.
So can the UK continue to buck the European trend and grow? "Given that interest rates may have peaked due to the slowdown in the housing market, there may soon be room to move them downwards to ward off any threat of a recession," says Morgan. "However, there is probably less room to manoeuvre in the EU." •