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PAST AND FUTURE.

2nd January 1919, Page 12
2nd January 1919
Page 12
Page 13
Page 12, 2nd January 1919 — PAST AND FUTURE.
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Which of the following most accurately describes the problem?

A Review of 1918 and an Assessment of Prospects. (First Part).

FROM THE POINT of view of the commercial motor user there is not very much to be said about the year 1918. It was a period devoted mainly to a struggle to keep on the road at all, with an inadequate supply of fuel of inferior quality and with the assistance mainly of antiquated vehicles not even supported by a prompt service of spare parts or by good facilities for the execution of repairs.

The position was nobody's fault. It was simply the natural result of the accumulated consequences of a prolonged and terrible war. The growing realization of the power of airaraft as a military. weapon rendered the petrol shortage more and more serious. The huge demands of our Allies, as well as of our own factories, for coal, was such that we lost even the glimmer of hope that had been seen in the earlier stages of the war, when the feasibility of using coal-gas as a fuel was first realized. No relief was to be found in the direction of benzole or even of alcohol, the whole of the supplies of both being taken up in the manufacture of explosives. Meanwhile, the increasing demand for aircraft and aero engines and the depredations of U boats threw an even more acute strain upCn the resources of our engineering industry. .

The Temporary Loss of Man Power.

, Even as regards man power, the position of the industry was not what it had been. The temporary successes which attended the German attacks in the spring led to a drastic combing out of the younger men even from comparatively essential occupations. Consequently, the Government found it impossible to give anything like free leave to motor manufacturers or to general engineers to construct spare parts for vehicles in need of such or to execute repairs arb.v overhauls in order to give the best possible. chance to the machines still upon the road. A certain amount, but not very much, was done lit the way of increasing the efficiency of transport by means of co-ordination. This problem • is an immensely complex one, though it may sound somewhat simple on paper. It is quite easy to talk about systems for the provision of returned loads and the prevention of overlapping and of waste mileage, but these are all things for which it is extremely hard to legislate satisfactorily.

After the signing of the armistice with Germany on 11th November, there have, of Course, been signs of general improvement. The petrol situation issteadily improving, and it is clear that there is a proper realization of the fact that commerce must be considered before pleasure in the allocation of increased supplies of fuel.

With regard to benzole, a marked improvement has occurred fairly promptly. In the more distant future, we see at least some prospects of supplies of denatured alcohol_

Releasing of New Vehicles.

During the last few weeks of the year many leading motor manufacturers have been allowed to release considerable numbers of vehicles for delivery to the public, though still more or less controlled by the Ministry of Munitions as a precautionary measure. There are now no longer the same difficulties in getting repair work done, though the retail motor trade is still under-sta7fted. Altogether, the provisions made in advance for the period of demobilization appear to have been well thought out, and we may now expect a rapid development of the position.

The time is hardly an appropriate one at which to discuss the technical details of the commercial vehicle of the future. It is, however, clear that, so far as price is. concerned, we cannot expect at any early date to get down to pre-war level. The cost of wages and of material has risen to an almost appalling extent. These two factors are interconnected, so that a decline in costs must neeessarily be more or less gradual. Further, no one can reasonably anticipate that we shall ever get back to the figures of 1914.

On the other hand, the output of manufacturers has been materially increased.. They have fully learnt what economies are obtainable by concentration of production on to the lowest possible number of models. They will benefit also by the existence of comparatively new materials of proved value, and by widened experience in the use of machine tools and in special processes of manufacture. The bills both for material and for labour will, consequently, be reduced by economies in the number of hours' work going to the construction of a vehicle and in the weight of material required for the game purpose. An interval must elapse before all possible economies can balance the present increase in working costs. Thus, in the near future, the user must pay what to him seems a. high price, remembering that this increase in price is probably a considerably smaller percentage than the average increase in the price of other commodities.

An All-round Increase in Prices.

The wine merchint, for example, before he grumbles at the enhanced price of a vehicle must recognize the fact that if he were to make a direct exchange of products with the motor manufacturer, he woold give fewer dozen in exchange for the vehicle than would have been the case four years ago. The same reasoning will apply in nearly every trade, and a fair appreciation of the justice of this reasoning should stifle an incipient tendency to complain against the rise in prices which, provided that it is moderate is also inevitable.

The future of the commercial vehicle user depends largely upon the policy adopted by the nation in respect of roads, and also as regards the taxation of vehicles and the laws concerning the use of vehicles upon the, road. The problems of road reconstruction and vehicle taxatien cannot be entirely separated. We have a right to demand a general reasonably high standard of road construction and maintenance. If we ask far something more than other members of the community, we must expect to have to pay a special contribution towards the funds absorbed in filling our wishes: The roads have gone from bad to worse since 1914. The cost of their reconstruction will be very large. The need for supplying work for all will weigh more strongly with the Government than any other argument in favour of road improvement. We shall probably require, however, to influence the character of the work done and the ultimate nature of the roads in their reconstructed state. In that case, we must be prepared to put our hands into our pockets and must not take fright at the slightest hint of taxation, 'provided that it is reasonable in extent and founded upon an equitable basis.

It has been announced that the Road Board is prepared to consider applications for grants for road improvement on a very comprehensive scale. Although the Government may, at an exceptional time, put an increased fund at the disposal of. the Road Board, we must remember that, -ill general principle, the Board is dependent for its finance upon, motor taxation. .

During the past year efforts have been made to bring commercial motor users and the owners ofother dames of motor vehicles together on all questions relating to taxation. Our impression is that, up to the present, these efforts have only met with qualified success, and that the position is such that it depends very largely indeed upon the commercial user whether anything approaching a complete agreement is ever reached. We certainly do not want to ask for taxation, but we should be unwise to adopt an attitude such that, if taxation becomes necessary, the scheme would necessarily be prepared by outsiders instead of being based upon the carefully thought out programme of motor owners themselves.

Pending Changes in Laws and Regulations.

it'is clear that we may expect early changes in the Heavy Motor Car Order. We are not obliged to accept the recommendations of the Departmental Committee of the Local Government. Board as the last word in this matter. The proposals of this Committee are evidently open to criticism in some directions. We may assume that those who would like to see motor traffic seriously restricted will use their influence to get the Board to go a good deal further than the Committee has.advised.

We, on our side, should be prepared to put forward, all the arguments in favour of a settlement more favourable to motor transport than is foreshadowed by the report of the Committee. It would be a great thing if we could get some increases in the axle weights permissible in conjunction with specified speeds. Even a small. increase in axle weight might result in a very material economy in the cost of haulage per ton mile. 'We know that there are some who would like to see axle weights reduced. Such influences must be strenuously combated.

It is probable that the door will now be opened to the more extensive legal use of trailers behind rubber tyred vehicles. Provided that road surfaces and graffients are sufficiently favourable, the cost of running with a. loaded trailer is very little greater than, the cost of running without a trailer. Thus, the comparative economy of the two methods is frequently dependent entirely on a comparison of the mileages that can be covered. If the proposed amendment be adopted the comparison will be roughly as follows:—

A five ton vehicle, fully loaded, may travel at 12 miles an hour. If we multiply the load by the speed we,get the figure 60, which may be taken as a sort of indication of economy. E we attach a trailer carrying an additional three tons the legal speed is at present reduced to five miles an hour. Thus we get the figure of economy, 8 Multiplied by 5, equals 40. Under the new scheme we shall get 8 x 8, equals 64; so that, if sufficient loads both, for lorry and for trailer are available, the use of a trailer at any rate admits of seine slight improvement in efficiency,

Ten Miles an Hour for Trailers.

• In our opinion, commercial users should exert all possible pressure in the direction of carrying the proposed concession even further. A limit of ten miles an hour for rubber-tyred vehicles with rubbertyred trailers would really be quite unobjectionable to the public. We should then get a figure of 10 X 8, equals 80, and the use of the trailer should be considerably encouraged and the economy of haulage and delivery materially improved, to the benefit of the community as a whole. It seems more than likely that, in the very near future, the Government,will form a Transport.Depart=tent. In some ways this may be beneficial. At the same time, the formation of such a department may not react to the advantage of motor transport. There is always the grave risk that the department will fall almost entirely into the hands of the railway influences, which may be used to restrict the natural development of competitive methods. Commercial • vehicle users should, therefore. watch this development with the utmost care, with a view to securing the institution of a branch of the department possessing adequate authority, and definitely concerned in the development rather than in the restriction of motor transport.


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