Press on Rewardless
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LITTLE is offered to operators encouragement of road transport, or to industry in general, by the Economic Survey for 1949, which was issued last week as a Government White Paper. It confirms the total of '7,700 as the number of trolIeybuses and Motorbuses to be allocated to the home market this :year. This figure Compares with an intake of more than 8,000 in 1948, although .6,000 Was originally fixed as the quota for last year Difficulties in adjusting production and initially, in finding expbrt markets, caused over 2,000 extra public service vehicles to find their way. on to the home market but even s4::P the intake of new vehicles was far below that required to replace Worn-out equipment: AccOrding to the Survey, 120,000 new vehicles peer ,annum would be required for some years, to restore the Country's goods transport fleet to its pre-war standard. The quota for 1948 was fixed at 50,000 new machines, but in faet, about 85,000 were absorbed by British operators. The Government declares, that fewer vehicles must be taken into The home market this year to bring the figure nearer to the original estimate of 50,000. , Rate of Progress -Will Decline The Survey states that " it is impossible to expect that 1949 will improve on 1948 as markedly as did 1948 on 1947." The period of rapid expansion in many :parts of the economy, it points out, is drawing to a close. The process of growth has changed. Future progress, the Government contends, will result from technical advancement, new capital equipment, improved organization, steadier and more productive work, and not from an increased labour force and the gathering of the fruits of reconversion .in earlier years.
The commercial vehicle industry may well prove to be the exception to the Government's generaTizafion on he prospects for 1949. Productn last year increased by about 20,000 units, compared with that of 1947, but if the rate set up in the first month of this year be maintained, output in 1949 will be nearly 28,000 higher than in 1948. Much; of course, depends upon the availability of steel, and despite impending nationalization, the steel industry has made prodigious efforts to increase output. Last year's Output of 14,900,000 ingot tops was a record, but the indications are that demand will continue to exceed supply. In the MOSt favourable circumstances," the Survey, stiggestS, the industry cannot produce. more than 15,5p0000 tons of ingot steel this year The „political forces lined up against it can hardly be expected to create' the most favourablecircumstances.", Referring to the task of increasing productivity, the Government states that the help that it can give is mostly indirect. It adds: `-` Our recovery vill never be complete unless we can develop..kkeen and adventurous spirit in manageMent, and ;:a readiness to were-tune new and improved methods by labour." , .
The Govehunent Wins Roth Wayn This statement implies a willingness on the part of management to take risks and experiment in the hope of securing increased prodUctivity, but ignores the stultifying effect oninitiative of a crushing burden of taxation. The Government is an unwelcome beneficiary in any successful new undertaking, but any loss incurred by " an adven turous spirit" is borne by industry. •. The Survey holds out little hope of relief from taxation in the next Budget. "Disinflation has not gone very far," it states, and adds: " In 1949 the nation will face a further stage in the fight against inflation. It is still necessary to restrain home demand in order to maintain the export drive. We expect this year to be able to reduce our dependence on foreign aid and to eliminate the balance of payments deficit of 1948. This change, welcome as it will be, will have inflationary effects which must be offset. In addition, we must try to secure some further easing of the pressure of demand." The total of personal saving by individuals and Government surplus needed, to prevent any increase in inflationary pressure is expected to be about the same as last year.
The Government intends, whilst maintaining investment in the social services at the 1948 level, to increase to the maximum, investment in those industries and basic services where higher output will, directly or indirectly, assist the balance of payments, and, more particularly, serve to increase dollar "earnings or reduce dollar expenditure. Increases in expenditure of railways, roads and ports are expected, but investment in new vehicles will be reduced.
The importance of an efficient road transport system to national output cannot be too strongly stressed. Tedious, lengthy and uncomfortable journeys to and from work are a great impediment to higher productivity per man-hour, There is an urgent need for new buses that will enable faster • and more frequent service § to be provided, without increaging the labour force. A reduction in steadily mounting operating costs, which can be secured only by introducing new vehicles, is also necessary if fares are to remain at the present level.
• The need for new goods vehicles is no less acute, although the Survey declares that curtailment of investment in them will have less serious consequences than in some other sectors. Cost of transport must inevitably be reflected in the selling prices of consumer and capital goods of all kinds, and the Survey acknowledges "the difficulties of finding buyers at our present selling irice."
• The commercial vehicle industry, by its outstanding record of production and export in 1948, has made out a strong case for an increase in allocations of raw materials. The Government is urged carefully to consider the claims of manufacturers to a greater share of available resources, and of industry and workers to a more efficient and less costly road transport system, in the interests of productivity and of a higher standard of living.