Reed predicts transport slump
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• If City confidence in the economy collapses later this year, the volume of goods transported by road could fall by more than 12% according to the latest Reed Transport Report by C:M's parent, Reed Business Publishing Group.
Such a fall, to around 115 billion tonne/km in 1990, would be similiar to the collapse that hit hauliers in 1980/81.
However, the report predicts that a 0.5% rise in tonne/ km this year — to 132 billion — rising to 139 billion by 1992, is more likely. Truck registration will tumble by more than 7% in 1990, making this year the worst drop in truck sales since the last recession, says the report.
But it continues: "We expect the drop to be relatively shortlived, with the worst of it in the first two quarters to the year. By the end of the year we should see some growth returning and we expect a strong bounce-back in 1991 and further growth in 1992."
Times will be particularly tough for tipper operators in the coming year, with a 7% drop in industrial construction forecast and an average fall of 3.5% in all construction sectors. In the retail industry, a jump in food deliveries is expected, although the movement of household goods will continue to fall. However, the RBP report is predicting a rise of almost 8% in exports. 0 Copies of the Reed Transport Report are available from RBP for £25. Contact Debbie McMahon on 01-661 3251.