The Lady of Shalott
Page 34
If you've noticed an error in this article please click here to report it so we can fix it.
There she weaves by night and day A magic web with COIOUr gay.
RESERVATIONS and approximations continually have to be made when statistics are required' in connection with free enterprise road haulage. The paucity of such figures as are available is equalled
only by their unreliability. .
In this respect, the British Transport Commission has an immense advantage. Its reports are veritable storehouses. of information, and are appreciated as such by the public and the Press. No speaker or writer dealing with the subject of nationalized transport need be at a loss for figures.
The numerologists of the Commission's ivory tower are not so reliable when they step outside their own province. Like the Lady of Shalott, they do excellent work so long as they keep their gaze turned steadfastly inwards, away from the outside world. As soon as they disobey this salutary rule, all their calculations go wrong.
An interesting example occurs in a recent statement from the Commission which has puzzled mathematically minded readers. According to this statement, the fleet of the Road Haulage Executive contains approximately 40,000 vehicles, made up of 3,560 acquired from former railway subsidiaries, 11,241 by voluntary negotiation, 23,296 by compulsory acquisition, and a balance of 2,000 representing the difference between the number of vehicles delivered and of old vehicles withdrawn.
The Commission goes on to say that the number of acquired undertakings is likely to reach 2,600. The statement concludes by listing a number of factors which will in due course lead to considerable economies in the work of the R.H.E. One factor is the "enlargement of the operating entity which now comprises, on average, 18 vehicles per unit, or 174 per group, compared with an average of about 2i per Aand B-licence holder before nationalization.".
Skilfully Circumvented The comparison may be good propaganda. It assumes; as if the fact were beyond argument, that the efficiency of a haulage Operating entity is in direct proportion to its size, and that an average of 18 must be better than an average of 24. By this means, the widespread doubts On the point, doubts-' which are not confined to hauliers, are skilfully circumvented.
The most remarkable feature of the comparison, however, is that it seems to bear no relation to the accepted rules of long division. If 2,600 undertakings and 40.000 vehicles. are -being acquired, the average number of vehiclei in each .undertaking must have been a fraction over 15, not much less than the figure of 18 which, the Commission would-have us persuaded, is the symbol of the improved' efficiency brought about by nationalization. tion.
The Commission, anxious to justify its existence, and to prove its superiority over the individual businesses it has acquired, has in this instance over-reached itself. The theory that vehicle averages are like batting averages has, in any case, no significance. Ironically, in a vain attempt to prove the theory, the Commission has obligingly provided the figures needed to demolish it One sympathizes with the statisticians of the ivory
tower They have woven a magic web by night and day, producing information that, so far as road haulage is concerned, has never before been accessible. Their brief peep into the outside world has been almost as disastrous for them as for the Lady of Shalott. They may well exclaim, with her, "The curse is come upon
me." , . . The boldly stated average of 24 vehicles not only does not mean what the Commission pretends. It bears no relation whatever to reality. If one assumes that the reference was to the total number of operators before nationalization, a little research will show that, in December, 1947, there were in existence about 55,000 A, contract-A and B licences, and about 162,000 vehicles authorized under those licences.
Even on this basis, the average is much nearer 3 than 21. One should not forget, moreover, that many operators hold more than one type of licence. The actual number of hauliers at the end of 1947 may have been substantially less than 50,000, with a corresponding increase in the average number of vehicles in possession.
Better Organized
Concerning the road haulage industry, scarcely anything can be stated with statistical certainty, and this imprecision may have shocked the Commission into its series of errors. The passenger side is much better organized in this respect, as is evident from a comparison between the annual report of the Licensing Authorities for goods vehicles and the other for public service vehicles.
The passenger document is packed with information. There are, for example, split up in various ways, details of the number of passenger journeys, and of the fares. Revenue and expenditure are summarized, again under several headings. One searches the goods vehicle report in vain for comparative figures. The total amount of traffic carried each year by free-enterprise hauliers is simply not known. At best, only an ample approximation can be given. The Licensing Authorities-are no more in a position to provide it than to estimate the income of hauliers and their costs.
Operators may not consider it worth while supporting the considerable organization needed to collect and collate details about their businesses. The Commission is constrained to provide a dossier of its activities. The information culled from passenger operators may also be regarded as essential. Hauliers may see little purpose in supplying facts and figures. There is no case for making the submission of statistical returns compulsory, and few operators would give the details voluntarily, by whatever method they were approached. Apathy and suspicion would stay their hand for the most part, and many, particularly the smaller firms, would have difficulty in finding time to fill in the appropriate forms.
The Commission is the organization best able to collect information about hauliers and their businesses. Thanks to the permit system, it already has a good idea of what traffic each haulier is carrying beyond the 25-mile limit. Its drivers are urged to report on other activities. In the archives of the ivory tower, if one but knew, there are probably almost as many data on the activities of hauliers as on those of the Commission. Unfortunately, the Commission has no duty. and can scarcely have the inclination, to make the details public.